EU Referendum Discussion Thread

[banjo]

I have been wearing my tinfoil hat for the odd moment here and there, wondering if it was all a scam to devalue sterling without causing riots.

[Dreadlocktruth]

The anti-Brexit protest scheduled for today in London was cancelled in conjunction with the police due to fears that the number of attendees would overwhelm capacity. Lucky for me I was too busy to go otherwise I'd have had a very wasted and soggy trip lol.

[N.U.]

I think they held it anyway

[Dreadlocktruth]

The planned one in Trafalgar square didn't go ahead but a few thousand stragglers took the protest elsewhere, which is what the videos of a "spontaneous" protest that have been doing the rounds are from.



Here's a prediction from acclaimed foreign correspondent Ben Judah on how things are likely to proceed (note, this is taken a from a Twitter thread hence the choppiness):

Have been running around the City of London last few days. Here's an update

Merkel and Brussels have outright already refused an EEA+ agreement that gives UK migration control, passporting and single market access.

What is passporting? All banks registered in UK have a "passport" that allows them to do business with whole EU. The City depends on it.

Base case is Berlin and Brussels plan to insist on an EEA- (i.e. a worse deal than Norway) that excludes passporting, migration controls.

This would however allow services to continue to have access to the single market. But not financial services. Mass migration continues.

This is formal offer. But Paris is planning a turn of cynical brilliance - that could at a stroke smite London and restore Paris to glory.

France cynically intends to offer Britain an EEA- that excludes passporting, but gives them a migration cap, and single market access.

This is a brilliant move: "you get less Poles, but we want your banks." It would be in France's interests to encourage UK out to get banks.

This would leave some stuff shirt like Crabb in a disastrous position: Paris and Berlin would have handed him a deal only "bad for bankers."

But the cynical French deal would be exactly the kind of cap migration, free movement for us and single market deal that the public want.

The next Tory munchkin leader would then be a hideous position: have his tax base slashed at by loss of banks as his voters rejoice.

Paris and Frankfurt would emerge as enormous winners by ending passporting. Hugely boosting popularity of French and German leadership.

British public will be left moronically clapping the huge triumph of a few less Poles and the punishment for "bankers" and tax base slashed.

City analysts I met look with unbridled disdain on a Tory leadership class they think are simply muppets. No clue what's about to hit them.

France has already made this plan public. Hollande utterly clear on exactly what he wants Paris to grab from London. (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e8e0c44a-3d89-11e6-9f2c-36b487ebd80a.html#axzz4CxmXutzs)

How will EU divvy up the City of London? This is base-case: Euro-clearing to Frankfurt and rest to Paris, Amsterdam to avoid #Frexit, #Nexit.

Hollande is particularly keen to grab as many banks as he can from London: a sudden rush of banks to Paris could turn his Presidency around.

Will a weak France get so many goodies? Surely France has a weak political system and flaring Islamism and rising Le Pen?

It is crucial to understand EU must at all costs stop Le Pen winning in 2017. Best way to do this? Reward France the banks and their taxes.

That's all for now. Just remember what a glorious day it is! #VoteLeaveTakeControl #IndependenceDay #GoBorisYeah

[james]

Oh yes. Now the spotlight is back on the Tories I'm enjoying it. The revolting froth rises to the surface. Hideous Gove as PM?!!! Boris who lead leave has run away to hide from his mess.
It's all about people and their need for power. Not for the country. Unbelievably believable the amount of backstabbing going on. Horrible lot.

[Olly]

Reading news is an endurance at the moment. I kind of dread what might be waiting each time I go to look.

[Dreadlocktruth]

I know, can you believe it's only been a week?!

[dave]

"Oh, where are you from?" "England" "Brexit huh! Excited?" "No.. I'm disappointed" "Why? What will change?" o.O the people at my work are oblivious

[N.U.]

In one week almost all the market losses attributed to Brexit (which hasn't actually happened yet) have been recouped. The devaluation feels more and more intentional.

[banjo]

I've definitely come around on the Racism thing. My mate Imran (I know I've mentioned him before, the taxi driver) has a 15 year old son. His son got called a Paki to his face for the first time in his life this week.

What really annoys me about the whole thing a week later: However anyone voted, I'm sure we all voted on the understanding that we have a government of grownups and that there would be a plan in place. I should have known better, huh. I'm astounded and disgusted that these clowns (Our clowns here and those other clowns on the continent) really did not bother to even think about what would happen in the event of a vote for Brexit. Right now, if you looked up Hubris in the dictionary, there would be a picture of the entire European political establishment... and if you looked up Naive, it would be me.

[Dreadlocktruth]

Boris is a weasly little twat, for sure.

[N.U.]

Like like Britain will have their second female PM.

[Dreadlocktruth]

I'd be more excited if the candidates weren't like a choice between shit and homophobic diarrhoea lol.

On the plus side, it's probably better than the initial fears of it being Boris or Gove.

And it looks like the Labour Rebels have given up trying to get Corbyn out. They know they'd stand no chance if they had an election given that he's more than doubled (probably near tripled by now?) membership in a year.

[Olly]

Yeah, lol. I don't want any of the candidates. May is possibly the lesser evil, but she's still a homophobe who brought in 1984-esque internet surveillance. I think she wants to send back immigrants earning under £35k too?

[Olly]

So that petition for a second referendum got so much support that they've scheduled a debate for September 5th.